PART3

Another failed Taepodong-2 launch would be a major embarrassment for Pyongyang which has little beyond its military threat to win concessions from the outside world. That, and the high cost for the impoverished state, may make it reluctant to risk a second launch.

Its leaders may be happy to simply imply a threat by moving around missile-related equipment, knowing it will be seen by U.S. intelligence and raise alarm within the new U.S. government.

On the other hand, the international community has few options left to punish the North for a launch of any of its ballistic missiles. North Korea is already subject to U.N. sanctions stemming from its July 2006 ballistic missile test that included Rodong missiles and the Taepodong-2 and a nuclear test a few months after that.

The United States has already called for a suspension of aid promised under a six-way nuclear deal while Japan and South Korea have blocked channels that sent cash and food.

WHEN MIGHT A LAUNCH TAKE PLACE?

A short-range missile launch could happen at any time.

The North may time a Taepodong-2 or Rodong launch to coincide with a meeting on March 8 of its Supreme People's Assembly. Its state media has been heralding the event and the role leader Kim Jong-il will play. Kim suffered a suspected stroke in August that raised questions about his grip on power.

It would be difficult for the North to launch a Taepodong-2 by the time of Kim's 67th birthday on February 16. Another possible date is April 25, the anniversary of its Korea People's Army.