NKorea would only use nukes if survival at stake: US intel chief

"North Korea has sold ballistic missiles and associated materials to several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, and, in our assessment, assisted Syria with the construction of a nuclear reactor." - US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair.

North Korea is unlikely to use its nuclear weapons unless Kim Jong-Il's regime feels its survival is at stake, US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair said Thursday.
On the proliferation front, North Korea has sold ballistic missiles to Iran and other Middle Eastern nations, and helped Syria to build a nuclear reactor, he said in testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Addressing intense speculation about Kim's health, Blair said the veteran ruler "probably suffered a stroke in August that incapacitated him for several weeks" and hindered his ability to operate as actively as before the stroke.

"However, his recent public activities suggest his health has improved significantly, and we assess he is making key decisions."

In terms of its overall menace to US interests, "Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and proliferation behavior threaten to destabilize East Asia," Blair said, presenting the US intelligence community's annual "threat assessment."

But he added: "Pyongyang probably views its nuclear weapons as being more for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy than for warfighting and would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances.

"We also assess Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against US forces or territory unless it perceived the regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control."

On prospects for the regime's survival, Blair noted continued food shortages, a slump in trade with Japan after North Korea's 2006 nuclear test, and a more recent decline in trade with South Korea as tensions have risen.

"Despite this poor economic performance and the many privations of the North Korean public, we see no organized opposition to Kim Jong-Il's rule and only occasional incidents of social disorder," he said.

Blair said meanwhile that "North Korea has sold ballistic missiles and associated materials to several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, and, in our assessment, assisted Syria with the construction of a nuclear reactor."

The United States believes that a remote site in the Syrian desert called Al-Kibar had been a covert nuclear reactor close to completion, until it was razed to the ground by Israeli bombs in September 2007.

"We remain concerned North Korea could again export nuclear technology," the US intelligence boss said, despite a faltering multi-nation deal designed to disarm the Stalinist state.